By 2027, Rivers State is shaping up as one of the most delicate political calculations confronting President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with the lingering rivalry between the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nyesom Wike, and Governor Siminalayi Fubara forcing hard choices on alliance, loyalty and electoral arithmetic.
At the heart of the dilemma is how to secure Rivers’ bloc votes in the next general elections. The President appears torn between Wike, a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) heavyweight serving in an All Progressives Congress (APC)-led federal government, and Fubara, the sitting governor who has since defected from the PDP to the APC in a bid to consolidate his political survival.
When Fubara assumed office in May 2023, his emergence was widely regarded as an extension of Wike’s political machinery. That alliance, however, soon collapsed amid accusations of misgovernance, control of state resources and political sabotage, plunging the state into prolonged instability.
The crisis deepened in 2025 with the declaration of emergency rule and suspension of democratic governance in Rivers, a move many believed was designed to halt an impeachment process against Fubara by a House of Assembly loyal to Wike. During the six months that retired Vice Admiral Ibok-Ete Ibas administered the state, Wike’s allies consolidated their grip, conducted local government elections and installed loyalists across the councils, weakening pro-Fubara forces.
Ironically, the emergency rule also halted the impeachment and paved the way for Fubara’s return. When civil rule was restored in September 2025, the governor was reinstated and initially pledged loyalty to both President Tinubu and Wike, signalling tactical peace rather than reconciliation. That fragile balance shifted when Fubara defected to the APC, a move analysts described as a political blow to the FCT minister.
The defection, though strategic, has triggered fresh contestation. Wike’s camp insists that party leadership in Rivers rests on grassroots control, not on defection or incumbency, arguing that Fubara’s move alone does not confer APC leadership on him.
The tension escalated recently when the Rivers State House of Assembly resolved to impeach Fubara and his deputy, Ngozi Nma Odu, serving them impeachment notices. While the Presidency has made no official statement, claims of presidential intervention persist.
In a clearer signal, the President’s Special Adviser on Policy and Communication, Daniel Bwala, publicly affirmed Mr Tinubu’s support for Fubara, stressing that the governor must be allowed to govern without undue interference. While acknowledging Wike’s contributions to the administration, Bwala clarified that the FCT minister is not a member of the APC and reiterated the President’s commitment to democratic governance.
The central question remains: who does Tinubu need more to win Rivers?
Speaking on the issue, Dr Adetokunbo Pearse, a PDP chieftain and former member of the party’s 2023 Presidential Campaign Council, argued that it would be politically imprudent for the President to ignore the sitting governor who controls state resources.
According to him, Rivers remains fundamentally PDP-inclined, regardless of elite realignments. He described Wike as a liability whose style generates friction both in Abuja and Port Harcourt, insisting that Fubara, having been elected by the people, remains the more strategic ally.
A political analyst, Dr Sani Abubakar, echoed similar views, arguing that political convention dictates that the President should work with the governor on ground, as done in other states. He cited Delta State as an example where party hierarchy aligned behind the governor following defection.
While acknowledging Wike’s claim of retaining ward-level and local government networks and some South-South influence, critics maintain that his polarising style deepens internal fractures and alienates swing voters.
Fubara’s defection, on the other hand, has strengthened the APC’s foothold in Rivers and signalled loyalty to the President’s national project. Yet, some analysts believe Tinubu’s safest path may lie in a careful balancing of both men’s strengths, rather than an outright choice.
As 2027 approaches, Rivers State remains a political minefield, one that will test the President’s capacity to manage ambition, loyalty and electoral reality in equal measure.
