The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted in a new country study that Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), will prevail in the 2023 presidential election.
According to the report, the People’s Democratic Party’s (PDP) internal conflict has drastically decreased Atiku Abubakar’s prospects of winning.
The report went on to say that the popularity of Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s (LP) candidate, in the South-East, which has historically been the PDP’s stronghold, has decreased his prospects of winning.
To become the APC’s presidential candidate in May, Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos, overcame various party officials.
Moments before the start of the primary election, the majority of his rivals resigned in support of him, while other candidates, such as Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, tried to gauge their support for Tinubu but failed.
Ahead of the election next year, his decision to run with fellow Muslim and former Borno Governor Kashim Shettima has continued to stir up controversy inside the APC and throughout the nation.
The same-faith ticket, according to the EIU, does not appear to have any impact on Tinubu’s chances of winning the presidency.
“We expect Tinubu to take the presidency, and recent developments have only reinforced our thinking. It does not appear that a Muslim-Muslim ticket will weigh significantly on Tinubu’s electoral chances,” it said.
Since the conclusion of the presidential primaries, the PDP has seen internal strife similar to the APC.
Nyesom Wike, the governor of Rivers, voiced his displeasure with the way the primary was handled.
The problem was made worse when Wike, Atiku’s top rival and closest rival, was passed over by the former vice president when choosing Governor Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate.
The choice went against the special PDP selection committee’s advice of Wike as running partner.
The expulsion of the party’s national head, Iyorchia Ayu, is one of Wike’s demands for reconciliation.
Ayu, though, has sworn not to leave his position and maintains that his term in office is four years.
“Atiku has more cause to worry. Not only is Obi eating into the PDP’s South-eastern support base, but Governor Wike, who finished second in the primary, does not appear to be interested in endorsing him,” the EIU said.
As Wike’s team withdrew from Atiku’s campaign council on Wednesday, the turmoil roiling the PDP grew deeper.
According to the report, the Electoral Act’s amendment to allow for electronic result transmission would significantly reduce the establishment’s ability to influence the outcome of the presidential election, resulting in the most accurate and reliable polls since the restoration of democratic rule in 1999.
According to the research, the Electoral Act reform will result in fewer disagreements over the outcome of the presidential election, despite the fact that the contest for president featured three prominent political contenders from the nation’s three largest ethnic groupings.
