For anyone observing Offa politics from the ‘Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT)’, it would not be incorrect to say Offa local government in the 2023 general elections looks like a flight that may overshoot the runaway and likely to fall into the canyon.
One thing that is obvious is that the Offa votes are ‘pre-hijacked’. And even people who would not get elected into the desired office would soil votes for those who would subsequently emerge.
I had said Offa is under the political siege of five parties, namely: All Progressives Congress (APC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Accord Party, Social Democratic Party (SDP), and African Democratic Congress (ADC).
For me, Ifelodun is the beautiful pride here. Offa with its bloc vote is suffocated, so Offa politicians have to go woo Share (headquarters), Igbaja, Idofian, Agunjin, Oro-ago, Ile-Ire, Oke-Ode, Omupo, Ora, Idofin, etc.
Offa-Born politicians, I hope, know they need to thread carefully as they go campaigning in Oyun LG.
Before I proceed, I need to acknowledge a thought of a brother from Offa who wrote ‘”I am not a political analyst, so if I goof in this, accept it as an act of upcoming analyst. Saheed Popoola (SP) has been frustrated out of APC, he has to find another party. Hon Olayonu (Danlad)’s interest didn’t align with that of PDP, he has to find another party. Why SDP and Accord, why can’t the two of them work and hunt together on single platform? Why can’t SP (Saheed Popoola) still aspire to go back to the state house and Danlad back to House of Representatives in the same party? They should be informed that in their political career, this is not the time to aim higher, it is rather a time fight hard to secure their place first. Tomorrow, they can now look further. With a combination of both, in a party, AA (Governor Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq) will surely have a headache as SP is almost 100% certain of winning his constituency and with the track record and financial muscle of Danlad, his chance is good. If they hunt separately, they are both likely to come back home not as lucky hunters. Their two plus two will give something bigger than ten, whereas, if they stay and fight separately, their individual two may not be enough to safe their political career. ‘Wale Olawole-BOY is my name, I teach Finance and Financial Accounting for a living, I just say make I talk small politics.”
THREE WOMEN AND THE SHAWO/ESSA/IGBOIDUN CONSTITUENCY
Three women are three candidates for three political parties for this Constituency. They are Adeniran Mariam Joy under Social Democratic Party (SDP), Chief (Mrs) Ibiyeye-Adisa Bolaji Iyabo under the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Keji Folashade Sherifat under Accord Party. Though there is a fourth woman, Shogo Mary Titilade contesting for the same Constituency under the Labour Party, atttention is on the three aforementioned.
I have written on the antecedents of Mrs. Adeniran Joy Obe in the first part of this article. Question is if she would be able to pull magic on the electorate again?
Chief (Mrs) Bolaji Iyabo Ibiyeye-Adisa is a business tycoon and a former Chairperson, Offa LGA Transition Implementation Committee (TIC). On Saturday 26th September, 2020, she was made the third Iyalode of Offa. (The Olofa of Offa culminated the event by magnanimously conferred the honourary title of Otun Atobase of Offa Kingdom on Chief Rauf Kayode Adisa, Iyalode’s husband who is an Ojoku born gentleman and philanthropist par excellence).
It is not a gainsaying that the tides are currently against Honourable Keji Folashade Sherifat. She seems to be pulled against bigger persons in the polity as in Adeniran Joy and Ibiyeye-Adisa Bolaji. Her current political situation heavily leans on Honorable Olayonu Olarinoye Tope (Danlad) and grassroot mobilizations by support groups such as one under the aegis of “Kwara Must Change”. However, she does not let perceived unfavorable analysis weighs her down. She has hit the ground running as I gathered she has been doing a lot of consultations and gathering momentum.
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Professor Wale Sulaiman alias PWS is the Social Democratic Party’s Kwara South Senatorial Candidate. Unarguably, PWS is a great man and achiever being a celebrated professor of neurosurgery and spinal surgery, researcher, a skilled physician executive and Philanthropist. It could be said I avoid personal contact with him so as not to affect my ability of penmanship on it but I have listened through a close aide of his and read all that’s to read.
However, I can safely predict that Ajasse Ippo-born neurosurgeon would come a distant third and that is not too bad for a green horn in politics who decided to take things up at the senatorial level.
I’m one of those who feel Honourable Saheed Popoola committed a political suicide by joining another party. A party that he has to be its ‘structure’. Well, he has done this before being the first person/Chairman to contest under the defunct Action Congress (AC).
Honourable Saheed Popoola knows his onions well in politics and if this is about Ojomu/Balogun Constituency at Kwara State House of Assembly he is very sure of victory, however the contest before him is beyond it. In fact, if he is contesting for the Ojomu/Balogun Constituency he would just be home sleeping till the election eve.
Offa is feeling his recent generosity and analysis say his strength does not go beyond Offa, his impacts are barely felt in Oyun and Ifelodun. This is expected because Saheed Popoola never contested a political seat beyond Offa. His case now is like the axiom ‘condition forces fish into tin and makes it Sardine’. He needs to braze up as he is testing new political water beyond Offa. Who knows the magic he has up his sleeves?
In Oyun local government, Saheed being Offa indigene knows where they won’t dare go. Well, he has six months to perform all the magic he has up his sleeves.
As expected we have new faces and or maybe new entrants in the Offa politics. We have Balogun Teslim Busola, the son of Sanni Aba Balogun who owned the magnificent building where ‘Sanni Aba’ (at Owode Market) derived its name from. He is contesting for House of Assembly, Ojomu/Balogun Constituency.
Balogun Teslim doesn’t pose much of opposition to the APC and PDP.
I have discussed Keji Folashade Sherifat above.
AFRICAN DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS (ADC)
African Democratic Congress (ADC) and its Senatorial candidate, Makanjuola Ajadi has no presence in Offa. Majority would tell they have not heard or seen contestants under the party, as in Ajetunmobi Abdulrazaq (Balogun/Ojomu Constituency) and Oladuntoye Oladapo (Shawo/Eesa/Igboidun Constituency).
ACCORD PARTY
The last time I checked, Honorable Hammed Ajibola’s was not in the INEC’s list. I hope it has been rectified.
Danlad poses a greater threat to the PDP and APC because he has served as Federal Representative for Offa/Oyun/Ifelodun before on the platform of the PDP, hence he supposedly knows the roadmap.
However, his weakness are two: first, he is the ‘Alpha and omega’ of Accord Party Kwara South, not only in the three local government areas. Accord Party has NO Kwara State House of Assembly candidate in Lanwa/Ejidongari in Moro LG, Oloru/Malete/Ipaiye in Moro LG, Patigi, Ilorin East, Gwanabe/Adena/Benni of Kaiama, Kaiama/Wajibe/Kemaji of Kaiama LG, Ilorin Central/Ilorin West, Lafiaji of Edu LG, Ilorin North West of Ilorin West LG, Ilorin South, Afon LG, Onira/Owode, Ilesha/Gwanara of Barutin LG.
Secondly, how would the elderly persons who are majority of the electorate recognize Accord on the ballot. The best way would be to tell them, “Accord is the first party on the ballot!”
ALL PROGRESSIVES CONGRESS
Honourable Yusuf Abdulwaheed Gbenga (JK) and Senator Oyelola Yisa Ashiru (born 14 June 1955) would be facing a political turbulence that would either return them to respective positions or make one-time House of Representatives member and Senator, respectively.
Honourable Tajudeen Abioye would have bloc vote in Oyun, especially Erin Ile and its supporters-towns in the LGA, but would lose Offa LG’s.
Offa has voted non indigenes twice instead of their own children in past elections and it didn’t end well. I think they would try to rectify this in this coming election.
It is expected that the party’s structure will work for Ogbeni Seun Ogunbiyi (Adato).
In 2019, Adato won the APC primary elections of Offa/Ifelodun/Oyun Federal Constituency but his mandate was given to Honourable Kayode Tijani because Offa happened to produce a senatorial candidate (i.e Senator Yisa Lola Ashiru) as well, thus it is not political advisable – well, not acceptable – that Offa should produce House of Representatives and Senator at a time under the same party.
Ogunniyi said, “I won the primary election in 2019, and my mandate was given to another in the interest of peace and stability of the party. The reason was the local dynamics in my local government. As of then, the person to whom my ticket was given to was contesting the House of Representatives position and ultimately, it will be very unfair for one singular local government within the senatorial district to have the Senate and House of Representatives at the same time. So, my own ticket was relinquished.”
PEOPLE’S DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Senator Rafiu Adebayo Ibrahim PhD, FCIB (born 12 December 1966) is seeking reelection into the Red Chamber after the 2019 Otoge Political Tsunami in Kwara State.
It should be recalled that Senator Ibrahim started off his political career, under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), as a member of Kwara State House of Assembly in 2009, and was later elected in April 2011 to represent Ifelodun/Offa/Oyun Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives of Nigeria of the 7th National Assembly. Ibrahim rose to become a Senator of the Federal Republic in 2015 when he was elected to represent Kwara South Senatorial District at the Nigerian Senate.
Kwara South LGs are Ekiti, Oke-Oro, Offa, Ifelodun, Irepodun, Isin , and Oyun. Out of the seven he has served as Representative for three in 2011, and the whole in 2015; chances say he is likely to be elected judging from the bad governance attributed to the APC. Aside from this, he himself knows he has a good contender in Senator Yisa Lola Ashiru!
Honourable Hassan Oyeleke, fortunately or unfortunately, was the first Chairman of Offa Local Government Area. As an avid politician and historian he knows well his chances in Oyun LG. I mention “history” part because he knows what transpired during the carving of the Offa local government area map, landmass and other concerns.
Offa is Honourable Hassan’s greatest strength. His chances are low in Oyun local government area especially as the ‘aggrieved/suppressed persons’ are still alive.
He attended the PDP Stakeholders meeting in Ifelodun LGA on the 6th of August, 2022 and someone said that was his first time of going there, if yes, there is trouble!
Ambassador (Comrade) Lukman A. Salaudeen (Eluku), the PDP candidate for KWHA, Ojomu-Balogun Constituency is a new face. It is understood that he has gained a lot of experience and momentum at the Youth wing of the party’s national level, but that would not be sufficient for the grassroot politics he finds himself in.
Campaign starts next month and I look forward to hearing much more about him!
I have discussed Chief (Mrs) Bolaji Iyabo Ibiyeye-Adisa above.
CONCLUSION
Ambassador Oluwasegun Taiwo (AOT), a journalist, broadcaster and friend of mine who practices in Offa gave me the analysis with which I want to make my conclusion on this.
He said: “a vox pop done shows that Danlad did more when out of elective position. He touched lives, more empowerment and the likes. Offa people won’t forget his generosity. Honourable Hassan was reportedly spending within the party and doing humanitarian services. This is contrary to the false information that he [Hassan Oyeleke] doesn’t spend. I think a politician never stopped spending. Among the trio (Offa candidates [Hassan, Danlad and Popoola]), someone analysis’ placed Danlad above the likes of Ifokanbale and Oyeleke in sheer generosity.
“Nevertheless, Danlad’s party structure calls for serious concern. Even most illiterates do not know their symbol. Ifelodun and Oyun are now determinants. Offa irrespective of the number of votes is in shreds already as you posited.
“Money, party’s structure and personality will tell. (I replied, “Hmmm… That’s why I added “structure” to Oyeleke. The man has history with Offa politics but…the alleged stinginess yí náà ni”)
“The thing is if electorates do not hear from you by now. They sing praises of whoever has been speaking to them. No rocket science. Like Osun now, voters made up their mind from home. The inducement PDP did was just a bonus. I was an adhoc staff in the Osun election. My unit as the PO, voters snubbed APC -10k for PDP -5k.🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
“Oyeleke believes, owns and incorporated in the structure. However, he should be wary of it. He should borrow a leaf from Governor Gboyega Oyetola of Osun State. Despite appointing local council chairmen, each has its own council secretary. One is Sogo Omo Osun. But were all that productive ??? Oh No.
“I don’t want to be too sure as to who has the highest chance now. Cos I don’t know how rooted they are in Oyun and Ifelodun, (but) Popoola and Danlad I forsee. My analysis on Offa candidates alone tho. But since the defection of Saheed Popoola to SDP, I doubt the current APC here in Offa. So that means Offa won’t vote Erinle born APC candidate and Erinle wont vote Offa… the picture can’t be that well painted until the end of this year and early 2023.
“Defection will happen for sure and who knows, withdrawal from the race too.”
Jimoh Taofik Adekunle
(Jimson Jaat Taofik)
Friday August 19, 2022
Jimoh Taofik Adekunle (Jimson Jaat Taofik) is a trained journalist, blogger, freelancer, author and researcher. He is a graduate student of The Federal Polytechnic, Offa, Kwara State.
